Weekly update: earnings, trade deals fuel U.S. equities

Presented by Marc Aarons

 Last week brought earnings from some corporate juggernauts as trade deals continued to be in the spotlight. Amid these developments, now is a great time to share an overview of what happened and what may be ahead. Read on for a bite-sized summary of what you should know.

Weekly Stock Index Performance

• The S&P 500 rose by 1.46%, the largest gainer of these three major averages for the week, indicating broad market performance during this earnings week.
• The Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.90%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended higher by 1.26%.

Trade Deals & All-Time Highs

• Markets sure love deals, as evidenced by the recent fresh all-time highs put forth by the S&P 500. Even though the pace and ultimate enforcement of recent trade and tariff deals have been uncertain and often changed direction, U.S. equity markets have overwhelmingly responded to the upside overall.
• As the Trump administration’s deadline of August 1st approaches, progress on tariff and trade deals is being closely watched by investors.

Earnings Magnificence

• As of the time of writing, 34% of S&P 500 companies have reported their results for Q2 2025, with 80% exceeding earnings per share (EPS) estimates. This exceeds the five-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 75%. If this percentage remains, it will be the highest positive EPS surprise since Q3 2023 (81%).
• Overall, earnings are 6.1% above estimates, below the five-year average of 9.1% and the 10-year average of 6.9%. These historical averages reflect all 500 companies, not just those that have reported to date.

Housing Setback

• Existing home sales declined by 2.7% in June, yet median prices rose to record highs of $435,300 — an interesting dynamic.
• New home sales increased at a pace below expectations.

This Week: It’s a Big One

• Magnificent 7 Earnings: The rubber meets the road this week, as we hear from the tech juggernauts that drive equity pricing. This includes Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
• Fed Meeting: No change in rates is expected, but commentary on future direction and catalysts will be analyzed.
• It could be a tone-setting week for the near future of U.S. markets; market-watchers will be paying attention!

That’s it for this week’s update! If you’d like to delve into these topics further or have any other questions or needs as the week unfolds, don’t hesitate to reach out. I am always here as a resource for you.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or concerns.

Marc Aarons may be reached at 714-887-8000 or Email Marc

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