Financial Market Update – Week of 11/18/2024

Presented by Marc Aarons

Major U.S. stock indexes digested monthly inflation data last week, and market participants reacted to comments made by Fed Chair Powell. There was plenty of market-moving action last week, so let’s get to it with a quick update!

Tallying last week, the S&P 500 declined by 2.08%, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 3.42%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 2.60%.

 Major U.S. Equity Indexes

 It has been quite the post-election rally, and equity markets took a breather last week. After the S&P 500’s biggest five-day rally in a year, major U.S. stock indexes sold off ahead of key monthly inflation data, with rising Treasury yields and a rising U.S. dollar as catalysts.

 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments about the future of interest rate cuts added to last week’s sentiment — more on that in a minute.

 Mostly In-Line Inflation Data

 According to the most recent metrics released last week, inflation remained mostly unchanged in October but was slightly warmer than the previous month’s reading.

 Consumer Price Index data showed a monthly increase of 0.2% in October, matching consensus expectations. This equaled a 2.6% year-over-year inflation rate, higher than the previous month’s 2.4% reading — so in line, but warm.

 Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose in line with expectations, tacking on 0.3% for the month and running at a 3.3% annual pace.

 Once again, shelter costs were the primary factor contributing to the monthly rise in inflation, accounting for more than half of the increase. In October, shelter prices rose by 0.4% monthly and saw an annual increase of 4.9%. Despite an otherwise stabilizing inflationary environment, shelter pricing remains high.

 Overall, the CPI data could be interpreted as in line with expectations, but with some overall stubbornness, as the data showed an overall rise from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October.

 CPI Market Reaction

 Major U.S. stock indexes rose slightly on the morning of the data release, as the report suggested firming up expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting. The odds of such a rate cut moved higher on the data release day to around 82%.

 But the mood of the markets would shift the next day, with Powell dampening expectations of a rate-cutting Fed. 

 Producer Price Index (PPI)

 Producer pricing (wholesale pricing) showed a rise of 0.2% in September, matching Dow Jones estimates. Similar to CPI, this wholesale inflationary data came in at expectations, but it was still a rise from the previous month’s reading. 

 Verdict: Inflation is at expectations, but pockets of warmth are on the minds of many. Later in the day on Thursday last week, major U.S. equity indexes would trade lower —  not as a direct response to PPI, but more due to Fed Chair Powell’s comments below.

 FedWatch: Powell Commentary

 With market reaction to CPI and PPI in progress, Powell tempered rate-cut hopes during a meeting at a speaking engagement titled “Global Perspectives” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas later in the day Thursday.

 Powell’s comments threw some cold water on risk assets and translated to a fading rally across major US stock indexes.

Comments included that the Fed doesn’t need to be “in a hurry” to lower rates.

 While Powell mentioned the economy is still strong, his comments were deemed as hawkish by the market at large, and rate-cut hopes diminished rather significantly.

 At the close of last week’s trading, futures traders showed a 61.9% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

 Gathering consensus elsewhere, opinions are divided, and we will have to see what the Fed does — or says next. We are well aware that the Fed is “data-dependent,” and with inflation persisting and uncertainty surrounding the labor market, we need more data to get a read.

 Government Bond Yields Rise

 As major stock indexes fell last week on hawkish Fed commentary and open-to-interpretation inflation data, government bond yields rose.

 Ten-year note yields gained around 12 and a half basis points to end the week near 4.429%, the highest weekly close since June.

 Two-year note yields also moved higher, although not as much as the 10-year yield, gaining around 5 basis points, closing the week near 3.584%.

 Perhaps recent pricing behavior in government bonds over the last couple of months was predicated upon the Fed getting more hawkish like we saw last week. 

 Gold Loses Luster

 Gold bulls have been hibernating since the election after the shiny yellow metal touched all-time highs in the spot market pre-election near $2,790 per troy ounce. Spot gold closed near $2,563 per troy ounce last week, still higher by a handsome percentage for the year so far.

 Reduced political uncertainty surrounding the election outcome and flows into equities could have given gold bulls some room for pause in the short term.

 The Takeaway

 We just had a monster post-election rally featuring the S&P 500’s best five-day stretch in a year. CPI and PPI data are constructive in that the inflation battle has been fruitful and productive, but there is room for interpretation on both sides of the argument in the eyes of the market. 

 The Fed sounded hawkish, and rate cut probabilities dwindling somewhat last week didn’t leave market bulls with much to hang onto temporarily. But we have come far rather quickly. Profit-taking is bound to occur for shorter-term traders. For long-term investors, however, the beat goes on until the next narrative takes form. 

 Let’s also be mindful that the interest rate markets have been telling us something for the last couple of months, as rates have risen in the open market. Even though the recent narrative has been for more rate cuts to come, the move higher in rates has been stubborn. So, an adjustment in market pricing for many assets was bound to occur. Let’s see what we get next.

 As always, if there is anything on your mind regarding the markets and the latest developments, shoot me an email or give me a call! I am always here as a resource for you.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or concerns.

Marc Aarons may be reached at 714-887-8000 or Email Marc

Money Managers inc. Website

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