Financial Market Update – Week of 12/16
Presented by Marc Aarons
Major U.S. equity indexes traded in a mixed fashion last week as investors interpreted fresh November consumer and wholesale pricing inflation data. Strength was featured in tech last week, with Broadcom making headlines on a deal struck with Apple to make chips designed for AI.
With fresh inflation data marking the first down week in four for the S&P 500, it is the perfect time to keep you updated on the latest developments.
For the week ending 12/13/24, the S&P 500 fell by 0.64%, the Nasdaq 100 was higher by 0.73%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 1.82%.
Inflation Picture
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Monthly Increase
The proverbial “last mile” in the inflation fight is proving to be longer than many would like to see. November CPI data was mostly in line with estimates, even as it showed a 0.3% gain for the month, bringing the yearly rate to a rise of 2.7% versus 2.6% in the previous reading.
Stubborn economic segments, including shelter and services, continue to contribute to sticky monthly inflation readings — but at least we see some deceleration in shelter pricing. Although CPI and PPI are still above the Fed’s 2% annual target, markets didn’t seem to mind too much last week, with the December rate cut probabilities rising after the data release.
November Core CPI (removes food and energy from the metric) also rose in line with estimates, showing a yearly 3.3% gain again, equating to a 0.3% monthly rise.
The verdict? Overall, recent monthly data may be construed as inflation being stuck in a range of sorts — certainly exhibiting a pattern of being down from the 2022 highs but still stubbornly above the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%.
While consumer inflation is not super low and continues to have sticky pockets, markets reacted mostly positively, as the probability of a December rate cut was virtually cemented after the data was released.
Producer Price Index (PPI): Simmering
After the mostly in-line CPI print on Wednesday raised the odds of a December rate cut and was received positively by equity markets overall, Friday gave us the November PPI data. Data showed wholesale pricing running hotter than expected in November, showing a monthly acceleration in producer pricing of 0.4%, higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 0.2%.
Looking at yearly data, wholesale pricing data for November increased by 3.0%. So, while consumer pricing was warm but in line with expectations, the wholesale pricing data was a bit hot. No victory laps on inflation as a whole just yet!
It’s the food – wholesale food pricing showed an outsized monthly gain that accounted for a large percentage of the gain in goods pricing.
Egg prices are approaching all-time highs made during the pandemic (not this again!). Bird flu was cited as the catalyst.
Treasury Yields Rise
As major stock indexes traded mixed for the week on rather warm overall inflation data, the 10-year Treasury yield rose every day last week. While expectations for a rate cut this week from the Fed are clear, rate cut aspirations for 2025 seem to be lessening as inflation is proving stubborn in the last mile.
Ten-year note yields rose by about 7.5 basis points last week, closing near 4.399% last Friday. The psychologically crucial 4.50% level is once again in sight.
Rate Cut Aspirations?
The December Fed meeting is this Wednesday, December 18th, and the markets are showing a 96.0% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut as of last week’s market close, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
But the outlook for 2025 is a bit different at this time. The thought process is that inflation has been sticky, resilient, and still above the Fed’s 2% target. Uncertainties about the new presidential administration’s policies and their potential impact on inflation naturally exist.
Some market watchers are talking about two rate cuts in 2025, but it is always difficult to predict what may happen so far in advance. A year is quite a long time in financial markets.
Given the freshness of last week’s inflation data, traders and investors will be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-rate decision press conference on Thursday for additional clues or confirmations on the Fed’s mood.
Looking Ahead
Once again, it is all about the Fed this week. Markets have baked in expectations for a 25-basis-point cut, so barring any surprises, attention will be on the policy statement and clues surrounding future Fed inclinations.
Uncertainties surrounding future policies from a new administration exist, and inflation has been percolating. It is not apparent by the recent upward trajectory in most major U.S. stock indexes. Could the markets be a bit too relaxed at this time? Time will tell as we approach the end of the year.
December is historically a good month for stocks (especially during election years), yet we have had a heck of a run year-to-date. Let’s be mindful of any potential pullbacks that could create potential long-term opportunities as we approach year-end and the inauguration in January.
As always, if you have any thoughts about stocks, interest rates, dividends, or anything else, feel free to reach out to me. We can connect, discuss, and exchange ideas.
I am always here as a resource for you.
Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or concerns.
Marc Aarons may be reached at 714-887-8000 or Email Marc
This communication is from Money Managers, Inc.; a Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment advisor. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed here.
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