Recession or Growth Scare? Your Guide

Provided by Marc Aarons

I’m hearing a lot of mixed messages these days about the economy. Some headlines say we’re already in a recession; some say one is looming. Others hint that we’ll avoid a recession and have a soft landing. It makes you wonder who’s in charge of putting a label on the economy.

I did a little digging on the topic, and here’s what I found.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of recessions. A recession is a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” You may be surprised that the NBER no longer defines back-to-back quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product growth as a recession–that’s considered old-school economics.

While the current economy includes inflation and rising interest rates, it’s also creating jobs. This economy created over half a million jobs in July alone. Given that indicator, I think it’s safe to say that our economy is expanding, not receding.

An old saying goes, “Don’t worry about the horse. Just load the wagon.” It’s a good time to stay focused on your goals and not worry too much about what you can’t change.

Marc Aarons may be reached at 714-887-8000 or marc@ocmoneymanagers.com

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